I can’t believe that 2023 is coming to an end pretty soon. It’s been a long and busy and fairly turbulent year so far. Interest rates are making some impact on the market but as you know, “the market” is comprised of a few segments that are very different from one another. Please see the reports below all across the country as a comparison. From my perspective, it feels that as a Realtor I have to put much more work into putting deals together. All offers come with subjects, not all subjects end up being removed. In multiple offer situations, which still happen, I’m not seeing too many offers and prices are reasonable relative to list prices. Please let me know if you know someone that is thinking of listing their place for sale or if you’re a buyer looking for a place. I’m here to answer your questions and help you with your needs.

NANAIMO
INTEREST RATES TAKING A TOLL ON HOUSING MARKET
“October was slower than expected, continuing the trend of the past few months,” says Kelly O’Dwyer, 2023 Chair. “High interest rates and a mortgage stress test of eight per cent are taking a toll on demand.” In fact, the British Columbia Real Estate Association anticipates that VIREB will close out the year with around 7,100 sales, which would be the lowest number posted since 2013. “REALTORS® are reporting that some buyers and sellers have already decided to wait until spring to buy or list their home, hoping that interest rates will drop,” adds O’Dwyer.

The board-wide benchmark price (MLS® Home Price Index) of a single-family home was $767,600 in October 2023, up three per cent from one year ago and down one per cent from September. In the apartment category, the benchmark price was $394,300 last month, a two per cent increase from October 2022 and down one per cent from September. The year-over-year benchmark price of a townhouse was $557,400 in October, up three per cent from last year and a slight increase from September

The board-wide benchmark price (MLS® Home Price Index) of a single-family home was $767,600 in October 2023, up three per cent from one year ago and down one per cent from September. In the apartment category, the benchmark price was $394,300 last month, a two per cent increase from October 2022 and down one per cent from September. The year-over-year benchmark price of a townhouse was $557,400 in October, up three per cent from last year and a slight increase from September

FULL REPORT HERE

VICTORIA

Interest rates a large factor in Victoria real estate market A total of 407 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this October, 15.2 per cent fewer than the 480 properties sold in October 2022 and a 17.4 per cent decrease from September 2023. Sales of condominiums were down 7.2 per cent from October 2022 with 141 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 16.1 per cent from October 2022 with 193 sold. “Overall, property sales drifted down in October compared to the previous month, likely due to consumers continuing to navigate interest rates higher than those seen in nearly two decades,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol.

“The uncertainty around the direction of the Bank of Canada rate announcement in mid-October may have caused some buyers to push their purchasing plans into the future because it was unclear if rates were going to be hiked again or remain stable. Generally speaking, when we have periods of static interest rates, consumer confidence returns to the market. We can recall earlier in the year when rates plateaued; we saw an uptick in sales in the weeks after. However, when rates began to rise again, we saw consumer confidence falter.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in October 2022 was $1,257,100. The benchmark value for the same home in October 2023 increased by 3.9 per cent to $1,305,900, which is down from September’s value of $1,312,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in October 2022 was $575,300, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in October 2023 increased by 1.8 per cent to $585,600, which is down from the September value of $589,600.

FULL REPORT HERE

VANCOUVER

Metro Vancouver housing market holds steady in October

An increase in newly listed properties is providing more choice to home buyers across Metro Vancouver1 , but sales remain below long-term averages.

“With properties coming to market at a rate roughly five per cent above the ten-year seasonal average, there seems to be a continuation of the renewed interest on the part of sellers to participate in the market that we’ve been watching this fall,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “Counterbalancing this increase in supply, however, is the fact sales remain almost 30 per cent below their ten-year seasonal average, which tells us demand is not as strong as we might expect this time of year.”

“With more supply in the form of resale inventory, and weaker demand in the form of slower sales, we’ve seen market conditions overall adjust towards more balanced conditions. It’s noteworthy that the multifamily segment remains more active than the detached segment at this time,” Lis said. “While the highest borrowing costs we’ve seen in over a decade continue to constrain affordability, a silver lining for buyers is that price increases have abated with these more balanced market conditions, meaning purchasing power is holding steady for the moment.”

The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,001,400. This represents a 5.8 per cent increase from October 2022 and a 0.8 per cent decrease compared to September 2023.

The benchmark price of an apartment home is $770,200. This represents a 6.4 per cent increase from October 2022 and a 0.2 per cent increase compared to September 2023.

The benchmark price of a townhouse3 is $1,100,500. This represents a 6 per cent increase from October 2022 and a 0.2 per cent increase compared to September 2023.

FULL REPORT HERE

 CALGARY
“Sales activity in the Calgary market has followed expectations, with declines earlier in the year offsetting gains in the second half,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Thanks to persistent supply challenges, the market has favoured sellers, resulting in stronger-than-expected price growth. As we move into 2024, we expect to see better supply-demand balances, but given the strong migration levels over the past two years, supply adjustments will take time supporting further price gains.”

Higher interest rates and inflation levels are expected to weigh on consumer spending and business investment, slowing economic growth in 2024. However, thanks to higher commodity prices and migration levels, economic activity in Alberta is expected to outpace national growth levels.

The unadjusted benchmark price in the city of Calgary in October reached $571,600, a gain over last month and nearly 10 per cent higher than last October. Benchmark Detached price: $697,600; Semi Detached Price: $628,700; Row houses: $425,200; and Apartments: $316,600

FULL REPORT HERE

 TORONTO

Lack of affordability and uncertainty remained issues for many would-be home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in October 2023. As a result, sales edged lower compared to last year. However, selling prices remained higher than last year’s levels.

“Competition between buyers remained strong enough to keep the average selling price above last year’s level in October and above the cyclical lows experienced in the first quarter of this year. The Bank of Canada also noted this resilience in its October statement. However, home prices remain well-below their record peak reached at the beginning of 2022, so lower home prices have mitigated the impact of higher borrowing costs to a certain degree,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Average price for a detached home in the 416 area code: $1,718,440; Semi detached: $1,278,347; Townhouse: $1,017,094; Condo: $729,160

FULL REPORT HERE

QUADRA ISLAND REAL ESTATE 

October was a busy month in Real Estate on Quadra Island with 7 new listings, 1 pending, and 2 homes Sold.

Short Term Rentals:

Area C’s Director is staying on top of this and you can read her reports here:
https://robynmawhinney.ca/directors-reports/

Many of you have expressed concerns about recent discussions of what will happen with short term rentals on Quadra Island. Since short term rentals are viewed as a commercial operation, there will be a review of the zoning bylaws in the coming months. 
here’s some more info: https://agenda.strathconard.ca/SRDAttachments/SRDBoard/Open/BRD/13-Sep-23/20230913-Short-Term-Vacation-Rentals-Area-C.PDF

 Zoning bylaws:
https://srd.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Quadra-Island-Zoning-By-Law-Revision.pdf

The world of real estate is a dynamic landscape, and it is significantly impacted by a multitude of factors, including economic conditions, government policies, and even global events. In recent times, the real estate markets in Quadra Island and Campbell River, both located in beautiful British Columbia, have been subjected to scrutiny due to the ongoing developments in the Canadian real estate sector. Of particular concern is the impact of Bank of Canada's interest rate increases on these markets, which are known for their scenic beauty and attracting potential homebuyers and investors alike. In this article, we will delve into the current real estate landscape in Quadra Island and Campbell River, considering the influences of Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes, and drawing insights from various sources, including the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB), the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB), the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

Before we explore the impact of Bank of Canada's interest rate increases, it's essential to understand the current state of the real estate market in Quadra Island and Campbell River. Both areas have experienced considerable growth and have become attractive locations for potential buyers seeking a serene island lifestyle combined with natural beauty.

Quadra Island, with its picturesque landscapes, has witnessed steady interest from both tourists and prospective homeowners in recent years. It offers a diverse range of properties, from cozy cottages to luxurious waterfront estates. According to the VIREB's September 2023 statistics package, Quadra Island has shown a stable real estate market. The report indicates that in September 2023, the benchmark price for a single-family home on Quadra Island was $673,549. Quadra Island remains a favorable location for those who appreciate a quieter life away from the city's hustle and bustle.

Campbell River, on the other hand, is a vibrant city that offers a unique combination of urban amenities and stunning natural surroundings. The local real estate market in Campbell River, according to VIREB, has seen a more dynamic trend. In September 2023, the benchmark price for a single-family home in Campbell River was $668,600, representing a 1% compared to the same month in 2022. This demonstrates that Campbell River, despite the robust price growth, remains a thriving market, catering to individuals and families who seek a balance between urban convenience and proximity to nature.

Impact of Bank of Canada's Interest Rate Increases

Bank of Canada's interest rate policy is a key driver of the real estate market in Canada, including Quadra Island and Campbell River. Interest rates influence borrowing costs, housing affordability, and investor sentiment, making them a crucial factor in determining the direction of real estate markets.

As of September 2023, the Bank of Canada has been implementing a series of interest rate increases as part of its efforts to manage inflation and the overall health of the economy. These increases are expected to impact the real estate market in several ways:

1. Mortgage Rates and Affordability: One of the most direct impacts of interest rate increases is on mortgage rates. As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing for homebuyers increases, potentially making it less affordable for some to enter the real estate market. This could affect both Quadra Island and Campbell River, as prospective buyers may reconsider their purchase decisions or look for more affordable housing options.

2. Market Activity: Higher interest rates may lead to a slowdown in the overall market activity. Buyers may be more cautious, leading to longer listing times and potentially lower prices. However, the exact impact will depend on the magnitude and speed of the interest rate hikes.

3. Investor Sentiment: Real estate investors often rely on financing to acquire properties. As borrowing costs increase, investors may reevaluate their portfolios, and some may choose to sell properties to avoid higher interest expenses. This could influence the supply of available properties in Quadra Island and Campbell River.

4. Regional Variations: It's important to note that the impact of interest rate increases can vary by region. In hot markets like Vancouver or Toronto, where prices are already very high, interest rate hikes may have a more pronounced effect on affordability. However, in areas like Quadra Island and Campbell River, where prices are relatively lower, the impact may be less severe.

5. Rental Market: Higher interest rates can also affect the rental market. As some potential buyers may delay their purchases, demand for rental properties could increase. This might lead to higher rental prices, making renting more attractive for some individuals or families.

Insights from Local Real Estate Boards

To gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics, we can turn to the reports from local real estate boards. The VIREB, VREB, REBGV, CREB, and TRREB regularly provide valuable statistics and insights on their respective markets.

As of the latest available reports from these boards:

- VIREB: The VIREB September 2023 statistics package showed that despite the interest rate increases, Quadra Island's real estate market remained stable, with an overall price increase of 21% for single-family homes. This suggests that the island's unique appeal and lifestyle offerings continue to attract buyers.

- VREB: The VREB's report for Victoria indicates that the benchmark price for a single-family home in September 2023 was $1,123,300, which represented a year-over-year increase of 12.4%. While Victoria and Quadra Island are distinct markets, this data indicates that price appreciation is not unique to the Quadra Island area.

- REBGV: The REBGV's report for September 2023 indicated a benchmark price of $1,318,800 for a detached home, which was an increase of 12.7% compared to September 2022. Vancouver's real estate market is often considered a barometer for the broader British Columbia real estate landscape, and this data shows a similar trend of price appreciation.

- CREB: In Calgary, the CREB's monthly summary for September 2023 indicated a benchmark price of $482,200 for detached homes, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.7%. Calgary's market is distinct from the island markets but exhibits its own dynamics, which may include different sensitivities to interest rate changes.

- TRREB: In Toronto, the TRREB's market watch report showed a benchmark price of $1,400,300 for detached homes in September 2023, with a year-over-year increase of 14.2%. Toronto's market, similar to Vancouver, is a major metropolitan area and often experiences its own set of dynamics.

From these reports, it is evident that price appreciation has been a common trend in various markets, including those of Quadra Island and Campbell River. While the Bank of Canada's interest rate increases are a factor, it is not the sole driver of price appreciation in these markets. Other factors, such as supply and demand dynamics, population growth, and local economic conditions, also play a significant role in shaping the real estate landscape.

The Role of Supply and Demand

Supply and demand dynamics are fundamental drivers of real estate markets

In the case of Quadra Island and Campbell River, the limited supply of properties and the increasing demand for housing options have contributed to the price appreciation. The allure of island living and the desire for spacious, nature-centric properties have drawn buyers to these regions. As a result, despite interest rate hikes, the demand for properties on Quadra Island and in Campbell River has remained relatively strong.

The pandemic has also played a role in influencing the real estate landscape. The desire for more space, a home office, and a change in lifestyle priorities has driven people to consider regions like Quadra Island and Campbell River as attractive alternatives to city living.

Furthermore, the limited availability of land for development on the islands constrains supply. These factors have created an environment where properties are in demand and, as a result, have experienced price appreciation.

Government Policies and Regulations

Government policies and regulations have a significant impact on the real estate market, as they can influence affordability and investment behavior. While interest rates are an important aspect of monetary policy, other government interventions, such as taxes, zoning regulations, and incentives, also influence the market.

In British Columbia, the provincial government has introduced measures aimed at addressing housing affordability, including taxes on foreign buyers and vacant properties. Such policies can shape investor behavior and affect the availability of properties in the market.

Additionally, local zoning regulations can impact the types of properties that can be developed in a given area, affecting the supply and demand dynamics. Understanding the full spectrum of policies at the federal, provincial, and local levels is essential for comprehending the real estate landscape in Quadra Island and Campbell River.

 The Future Outlook

The future outlook for the real estate markets in Quadra Island and Campbell River will depend on a combination of factors, including the progression of Bank of Canada's interest rate increases, supply and demand dynamics, government policies, and broader economic conditions.

1. Interest Rates: The pace and magnitude of interest rate increases will continue to be a critical factor. Homebuyers and investors will closely monitor these changes and adjust their strategies accordingly. If the Bank of Canada implements further rate hikes, it may slow the market's momentum, potentially leading to a more balanced market.

2. Supply and Demand: The limited supply of properties in Quadra Island and Campbell River is likely to continue to drive demand. The appeal of island living and access to nature are factors that can sustain interest in these markets.

3. Government Policies: Ongoing government policies and regulations will shape the market's trajectory. Monitoring changes in taxation, zoning, and housing incentives will be essential for market participants.

4. Economic Conditions: The overall health of the Canadian economy and the local economies of Quadra Island and Campbell River will play a significant role. Economic growth, employment rates, and population trends are crucial factors influencing the real estate landscape.

The real estate markets in Quadra Island and Campbell River, British Columbia, have experienced substantial growth in recent years, driven by factors such as the appeal of island living, limited supply, and changes in lifestyle priorities due to the pandemic. While Bank of Canada's interest rate increases may have an impact on these markets, they are not the sole determinant of their future trajectory.

Understanding the complex interplay of factors such as supply and demand, government policies, and broader economic conditions is essential to comprehending the real estate landscape. Prospective homebuyers, sellers, and investors in Quadra Island and Campbell River will need to stay informed and adapt their strategies in response to evolving market dynamics, including the effects of interest rate changes.

As we move forward, it will be fascinating to observe how these real estate markets continue to evolve and adapt in the face of ongoing economic and policy developments. Island living and the allure of nature are likely to remain key drivers of the demand for properties in these beautiful regions of British Columbia.

Amped on Nutrition

Quadra Island: The month of September saw 6 new listings, 3 sold (pending), and one expired. 

Cortes Island: September was also busy on Cortes Island with 3 new listings, 2 expired, and 1 cancelled. 

Nanaimo:
Quiet September Market Favours Buyers.

It appears that the market is shifting towards a buyers market, away from favouring the sellers like we have seen for years.  
In Campbell River, the benchmark price of a single-family home was $668,600 last month, up one per cent from the previous year.

“September looked like a relatively typical fall market but was somewhat slower than expected, so higher interest rates could be catching up with us,” says Kelly O’Dwyer, 2023 Chair. “Potential buyers seem to be holding out for more favourable rates and conditions.” O’Dwyer feels that the sellers’ market VIREB experienced for the past few years has transitioned to a balanced market and appears to be moving to one that favours buyers. Sellers should consider adjusting their expectations if they hope to sell their home in a reasonable amount of time.

It’s obvious that he interest rate hikes we’ve seen have a delayed response on the consumer market, but eventually it’s going to catch up. Available units for sale numbers are dropping, which is usual this time of the year. 

VANCOUVER
The Vancouver Real Estate Board reports that the reluctance of some homeowners to list their homes for sale have caused low inventory and thus forcing prices higher through the spring and summer months. It appears that September has seen increased activity compared to last year’s September. September of this year had 13.2% more units sold than last year. 
“In contrast to the spring and summer, the September data suggests there may be a renewed interest on the part of sellers to participate in the market, with new listing activity rising back in line with long-term historical averages. This upward shift in new listings has allowed overall inventory levels to recover modestly from the low levels we saw earlier this year,” Lis said. “When we pair this dynamic with the slowdown in sales that typically occurs in the fall as a result of seasonal patterns, the outcome is more balanced market conditions overall.” 

Sales of detached homes in September 2023 reached 572, a 7.5 per cent increase from the 532 detached sales recorded in September 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,017,100. This represents a 5.8 per cent increase from September 2022 and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to August 2023. 

TORONTO
The impact of high borrowing costs, high inflation, uncertainty surrounding future Bank of Canada decisions and slower economic growth continued to weigh on Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales in September. However, despite the market being better-supplied with listings, the average selling price was up year-over-year.

“The short and medium-term outlooks for the GTA housing market are very different. In the short term, the consensus view is that borrowing costs will remain elevated until mid-2024, after which they will start to trend lower. This suggests that we should start to see a marked uptick in demand for ownership housing in the second half of next year, as lower rates and record population growth spur an increase in buyers,” said TRREB President Paul Baron.

CALGARY
Calgary home sales at record highs in September, yet supply remains a challenge.
“Supply has been a challenge in our market as strong inter-provincial migration has elevated housing demand despite higher lending rates,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While new listings are improving, it has not been enough to take us out of sellers’ market conditions.” In September, the unadjusted residential benchmark price was $570,300, similar to last month and nearly nine per cent higher than last year.

When issuing a new notice of rent increase, a landlord must:

• Use the approved notice of rent increase form

• Use up to the maximum amount for 2024: 3.5%

• Give the tenant no less than three full months before the notice takes effect. For example:

• If rent is due on the fifteenth of each month, notice must be given before October 14, 2023 and the first increased rent payment will be due January 15, 2024

Busier than usual summer

“We’re busier this summer than is typical despite rising interest rates,” says Kelly O’Dwyer, 2023 Chair. “After a rate increase is posted, clients tend to pull back and sit for a bit, but then the desire to buy takes precedence. Consumers tend to be resilient and are determined to find a way to make things work.” O’Dwyer notes that while multiple offers are still happening, they tend to be on well-priced properties. “Some sellers of higher-end properties are sitting on a preconceived price they’re expecting to get based on last year’s numbers,” adds O’Dwyer. “They’re not recognizing that market conditions have changed, at least for now.”